Trying to predict the future after the pandemic

Zsolt Hermann
2 min readMay 13, 2020

A mathematical formula with too many unknowns

Many people are dismissing articles, opinions that try to paint the picture of the Human system after the Covid-19 virus pandemic. I agree that nobody can predict the future especially not while the pandemic is still upon us.

On the other hand this is not an event that just feel on top on our heads.
In terms of the virus these sceptics are right, nobody knows if there will be a second wave and if there will be one, how serious it is going to be. Nobody knows how global travel can resume before vaccines come and nobody knows if the vaccines will be effective in not.

The socio-economic crisis is a given

But in terms of the socio-economic system, financial institutions we have been in crisis for decades. So the virus didn’t cause anything new, we already knew even before the pandemic that our present state is unsustainable and it will collapse sooner or later.

The virus and restrictions simply pulled the plug from the life-support machine from this dying system, so it is not so complicated to predict the collapse that will be worse than 2008 since nothing was corrected, changed since and all the debt, the unsustainable bubbles just got bigger, more fragile.

Warning from historic experience

Moreover we also have historic experience to go on. As each and every Human system, civilization until now was built on the artificial, inherently self-serving, excessively consuming human nature that’s incompatible with Nature’s system history is a helplessly recurring chain of vicious cycles.

And we are at the end of our cycle, running out of options, with very eerie parallels to the 1930s. And since we are not changing anything about it behavior, about exploiting each other and Nature, succeeding, surviving at each other’s expense why should we expect different results?!

Our free choice is the most unpredictable

The only difference the virus has caused is giving us time to rethink, reassess and maybe initiate changes in the way we live, we relate to each other.
And that’s the part - on which everything else depends on - which is the most difficult to predict!

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Zsolt Hermann

I am a Hungarian-born Orthopedic surgeon presently living in New Zealand, with a profound interest in how mutually integrated living systems work.